Historically, various levels of governments step into the economy with stimulus packages that assist with recovery after a significant economic disruption. Notably; the 9/11 Crisis, the 2008 Economic Downturn and the current Covid-19 Crisis. Stimulus packages can take various forms and are designed to address a range of needs that span from supporting immediate short-term necessities to dealing with the long-term repercussions. Setting aside the political debate surrounding the effectiveness of such measures, we want to discuss how we as dTIMS users can help to ensure that the right decisions are made regarding our assets as society digs itself out from the economic vortex that we have fallen into.
What can we do as Asset Managers?
As asset managers we can certainly foresee changes and as stake holders in the management and delivery of transportation assets we must be prepared to react and, as always, make informed decisions in this time of change. The anticipated changes, some of which have already happened, will be a result of impacts to the demand and supply side of our business and to some extent consumer confidence.
The most obvious area of adjustment is in the area of funding that various levels of government will make available to infrastructure managers. This could take the form, depending on a government’s policy, from reduction of funding as support is shifted to other areas of society, to budgetary increases designed to boost work in the public asset sector. As dTIMS users we know that does not mean just adding or subtracting projects to and from the recommendations that have already been made. The prudent way of reacting to funding changes is to adjust your dTIMS analysis constraints, in the form of Budget Scenarios, and re-execute the network analysis to see the impact of modified budget scenario has on the program recommendations. Unless you have gone to the extraordinary effort to configure your dTIMS to generate a simple prioritized list of recommended projects the re-execution of your dTIMS analysis will result in a different set of recommended, optimized projects.
Another area where changes can impact the dTIMS analysis is in the area of Treatment Costs. Although not directly related to the current crisis, the price of oil is at record lows and the reduced demand for fuel will put pressure on the price to stay well below recent levels. Suppliers of petroleum base resources should be canvassed on how oil prices are going to impact the price of raw materials that go into the treatments that you have defined in dTIMS. The dTIMS treatment cost expressions can be modified to reflect this. Re-executing the dTIMS analysis will show the impact of reduced material prices on the volume of work that is triggered and the overall network condition. Even the type of work that is triggered in the dTIMS analysis might change now that cheaper petroleum-based treatments can better compete with concrete-based treatments.
Social Impact
The social impact of this crisis is going to change the way people work. With the need to continue to work during the crisis, businesses have been quick to expand work-from-home policies to keeping businesses functioning and customers satisfied. How will this adapted way of work impact traffic volumes in the future? How will toll revenue be affected?
If you have a traffic growth expression in your dTIMS analysis, you might want to revisit that model to see if how your strategic planning will be impacted by changing user behaviours.
Inflation and Discount Rates are two analysis parameters within dTIMS that impact the amount of work that can be done, the Treatments that comprise a Treatment Strategy, the timing of Treatments and the impact of the Benefits derived from different Treatments. The significant changes to prime interest rate and forecasted changes to come will have to be reflected in the dTIMS analysis and can significantly influence the recommended Treatment Strategies.
The events that we find our selves living in today are unprecedented and require good leadership that is well informed. As Asset Managers, we are going to be asked to provide objective opinion on the proper direction to take in reaction to our changing economic and social norms. The flexibility of dTIMS gives us the ability to configure and test a multitude of scenarios and compare each in an objective way. Let’s apply this capability to our imaginative, engineering nature to model future scenarios that will support our leadership with objective information. Let’s not forget the role that dTIMS can play, and the positive impact that informed decisions can have on the well being of society and the future of our assets.
Stay safe and keep healthy.